National Research Council Estimates Impact of Human-Caused Global Warming

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The NRC issued a report on July 16, 2010, entitled, "Near-Term Emissions Choices Could Lock in Climate Changes for Centuries to Millenia: Report Estimates Impacts from Various Levels of Warming." These data will inform policy decision-makers. Here are some of the main points, quoted directly:

Increased Confidence About Future Impacts

Although some important future effects of climate change are difficult to quantify, there is now increased confidence in how global warming of various levels would relate to several key impacts, says the report. It lists some of these impacts per degree Celsius (or per 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) of global warming, for example (these apply for 1 C to 4 C of warming):

· 5 percent to 10 percent less total rain in southwest North America, the Mediterranean, and southern Africa per degree Celsius of warming.
· 5 percent to 10 percent less streamflow in some river basins, including the Arkansas and Rio Grande, per degree Celsius of warming.
· 5 percent to 15 percent lower yields of some crops, including U.S. and African corn and Indian wheat, per degree Celsius of warming.

What then must we do?

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